Alaska fishery managers this week released the 2025 predictions for salmon returns to the Copper River and Price William Sound regions, calling the runs “excellent” or “strong” for all salmon species except for Chinook.
At Copper River, the Chinook salmon total run forecast point estimate is “Weak” at 36,000 fish. This is 25 percent below the recent 10-year average total run of 48,000 fish.
For sockeye salmon, the 2025 Copper River total point estimate of wild plus hatchery production is “excellent” at 2,638,000 fish,
That would produce a commercial harvest of 1,920,000 fish sockeye salmon.
“Strong” predictions for PWS pinks and chums
The 2025 PWS wild pink salmon total run forecast point estimate is “Strong” at 18,626,000 fish, which is 8 percent above the recent 10-odd-year average (2005–2023). That results in a harvest estimate of 16,788,000 humpies.
For chum salmon, the wild total run forecast is also “Strong” at 613,000 fish, 18 percent above the 10-year average of 520,000 fish. That provides for a harvest point estimate of 443,000 chums.
Along with the estimates of wild salmon runs, the Prince William Sound Aquaculture Association and the Valdez Fisheries Development Association will issue their forecasted returns in early March.
Alaska's 2024 Salmon Season
Alaska’s 2024 salmon fishery saw double-digit declines in both catches and value.
Fishermen’s paydays also took a big hit, with the total salmon value at $304 million. That’s down nearly 24 percent from $398 million last year.
Those numbers are from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G)
It gets worse.
Alaska’s 2024 all-species catch of 101 million fish weighed in at 450 million pounds—the third lowest on record for total fish harvested and the lowest on record for total pounds harvested since 1985. For ex-vessel value (dockside), adjusted for inflation, the estimate of $304 million was the third lowest since 1975.
